Sunday, March 30, 2014

Expectations vs Reality

An interesting confrontation is now on between Yashwant Sinha and P.Chidambaram. Being politicians, both are adept in obfuscation. The current rally in the stock market, according to Sinha, is an expectant rally that factors the likelihood of BJP coming to power. Chidambaram argues that the rally has crystallised because of positive steps taken by the government.

It is probably a combination of both. It is quite an achievement on the part of government that no new scam has surfaced in the recent past! On the part of the principal opposition party (how one hopes that it is also a principled opposition party!), though a few senior leaders have become disillusioned, it has attracted quite a few leaders from other parties. However, the quality of such new entrants is highly suspect.

The results of 2014 elections may contain shocks and surprises. Modi has peaked rather too early. BJP may be missing the advantage of slog overs. The Congress may do unexpectedly well, unexpected by itself also. If this happens, it has to thank the quirks of electoral arithmetic in India and not its own performance.

If BJP does well, the credit should go to misgovernance of Congress. If Congress does well, BJP's inability to convert abundant potential into positive results will be blamed. In short, the winner whoever it be,  cannot take credit for its success.

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