Saturday, December 30, 2017

Rajini enters the cesspool

The threat or the promise has at last come true. Rajini, the Tamil superstar, has now taken the plunge during the dying hours of the year 2017. Will this herald better times for Tamil Nadu?

When asked about the prospects for his success in politics, he whimsically answered that entry itself is success. Does this show his sense of realism or betray his lack of confidence ? He is entering the political scene when politics in Tamil Nadu is both murky and mucky. This is a more consequential gamble than any that he might have taken in the movie land.

He says he will withdraw from politics if he is 'unable to deliver' within three years. This may read like a challenging and welcome statement today indicating his seriousness. In case he becomes a true politician within three years, he will realise that, in politics,  promises and pledges are meant to be broken. Political gutter in the state is now so stinky that it will be a remarkable wonder if the superstar is able to cleanse it in the time period he has given himself.

A new party will be formed and it will contest all the 234 seats for the Legislative Assembly. In the normal course the election should take place in 2021. Money power has become the most critical indicator of success in Tamil Nadu politics. How does Rajini plan to raise the necessary resources for this Herculean task? If he is able to do this, he will become beholden to the benefactors and the present venal state of politics will continue. Catch 22 situation !

Rajini's plans are already showing signs of contradiction. He has given himself three years to deliver and the first real challenge will appear only in 2021 ! It is of course possible that state elections may get advanced in view of unstable political situation prevailing now. Kamal Hassan's ever-indeterminate plan to make a foray into politics may introduce some more interesting uncertainty.

Rajini uses Lord Krishna's metaphor to claim that he makes his political avatar to rid politics of adharma. Does he similarly possess the optimal blend of integrity, guile and foresight to steer the state in the right direction? Only time will tell.




Monday, December 25, 2017

Political integrity

The word 'integrity' has at least three meanings. It refers to completeness (as in 'the government should protect nation's integrity). It also means unimpaired quality (example: a chemical's integrity). The third meaning refers to adherence to a code or dharma as in moral integrity or business integrity.

The by-election in R.K.Nagar assembly constituency may make us wonder what has happened to political integrity. A simple analysis of the campaign process and the result assures us that political integrity is intact, safe and secure.

It needs to be said upfront that political integrity demands symmetric behaviour from both the contestants and the voters. This election has come up trumps in this respect. As reports go, AIADMK donated Rs.6,000 per vote and TTV Dinakaran Rs.10,000. We do not know how much was gifted by DMK. The electorate proved their integrity by ensuring that AIADMK secured less than 60% of votes captured by TTV. This simple arithmetic shows that DMK must have given only Rs.3,000 per voter.

Let us now analyse TTV's integrity in all three dimensions.

Completeness: He has proved he is Jaya's only political heir by winning the election hands down. So he totally represents Jaya's party. Name and symbol have been wrongly allotted to the pretender faction of EPSOPS.

Unimpaired quality: Many attempts were made to change TTV. IT, ED raids are just two examples. But TTV  was not ready to alter his innate quality of being a benefactor to voters. Lots of cash might have been seized during raids. This did not disable TTV's liquidity. You may set fire to gold, does it ever lose its sheen?

Adherence to democratic code: This is where TTV has astounded the sceptics. The model code of elections which is strictly enforced in our democracy mandates that no cash can be distributed to voters in the constituency. What did TTV do? He took the voters out of the constituency and made arrangements for cash distribution only in neighbouring constituencies where no election was held. Some voters missed this opportunity. TTV did not let them down. The model code does not disallow noting of numbers of Rs.20 currency notes the possessors of which can receive cash after the election when the code ceases to be operative. Would TTV break the promise now that he has won? No way. If he reneges now, how can he win the general elections which may not be far away?

Why did the electorate massively vote for TTV? The answer is twofold. The symmetric expectation requires their compliance with the Rs.10,000 pact. The voters wanted to prove their integrity. Secondly, RK Nagar voters are lovers of democracy. They want to exercise their only democratic right of casting votes as frequently as possible to secure their livelihood. With ED cases awaiting finality, TTV may lose his Assembly membership anytime soon. TTV's representative will contest the soon-to-be held by-election and take care of voters' cash needs.

Monday, December 18, 2017

A tragic miss for Congress

Hardik Patel (age 24), Jignesh Mevani (35) and Alpesh Thakor (40) are all strong leaders of different castes who are very useful supporters for any political party during elections (it is another matter that they will demand their pound of flesh if voted to power). All of them supported the Congress in Gujarat Assembly elections. This by itself should have enabled Congress to wrest power from BJP. On top of this is intense anti-incumbency factor. Farmers' deep distress and increasing economic inequality 'caused by Gujarat Model of growth' should have catapulted Congress to two-thirds majority in the assembly.

This logical development did not come about because the two focal adversaries, Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, did something in tandem : both of them stood in the way of Congress' march to power, the former through ostensible sincerity and the latter through apparent insincerity. When Modi raised the bogey of Congress aligning with Pakistan towards the end of campaign, voters lapped it up. When Rahul tried to assert that he is a janeu-dhari Shiv-bakht, he over-estimated the gullibility of voters. Rahul's expedient discovery and superficial claim that he is a Hindu distanced true believers in Hinduism from Congress. Religious polarisation has been patented by BJP with first-mover advantage. Rahul Gandhi's me-tooism in this respect boomeranged on his party's chances to race to power. Rahul's political ineptness  showed up in his inability to run with the hare and hunt with the hound when he unsuccessfully tried to fuse together vikas and religiosity. Success in politics demands an ability to combine even more incompatible issues with greater ease.

Congress should not view the results as a welcome addition in its strength in the assembly. It should rather introspect over mishandling a favourable situation that any other political party would have easily leveraged to become the ruling party. A necessary corollary is to reconsider Rahul Gandhi's suitability for Congress presidentship.

Sunday, December 17, 2017

Takeaway from exit polls

The shelf-life of exit polls of Gujarat  elections gets over today. So, it is imperative that we make sense of the exit polls right now. Actual counting of votes scheduled tomorrow may confirm or contradict the exit poll findings to the delight or dismay of people depending on their political proclivities.

Rahul Gandhi spearheaded the Congress campaign. He has since become the President of the party. It is therefore unavoidable that he will gain respect or ridicule depending on the final results. Arrogating credit for victory and abdicating responsibility for defeat is an obsolete and unacceptable strategy.

22 years of BJP rule (misrule according to Rahul Gandhi) alongwith attendant anti-incumbency mood, immense inconvenience caused by demonetisation and trader-unfriendly implementation of GST should have dealt a death-blow to BJP and enabled a cakewalk for Congress. Disenchantment among Patidars , fusion among OBCs and dalits against BJP and poor performance by BJP in the local / panchayat elections preceding the Assembly elections were additional advantages to Congress.

Rahul Gandhi's reaction to credibility of exit polls is not known. But he commented that BJP has lost credibility among Gujarathis. It was also strange to hear him say that foundations of BJP in Gujarat are weak.

The political situation was ripe for Congress riding back to power. If Congress continues to fail at the hustings as told by the exit polls, it can only be interpreted as a consequence of fatally-flawed policy and approach of Rahulji. The 47-year old leader is not a newcomer to politics. He is misplaced as national leader of the main opposition party in the country. His metamorphosis as an energetic and persuasive leader during the Gujarat campaign was perhaps dubious.

This raises the question of tenability of Rahul Gandhi as President of Congress. It is obvious except to the most obsequious that he is in that position purely by accident of birth in a family. Congressmen need to accept the fact that the party is more important than any person. One may argue that only a Nehru-Gandhi can hold the party together in these perilous times. This argument is specious because the alternatives have not been tried for a long time. Continued reliance on the family will only aggravate the party's misery. A political party that totally depends on a family for its survival is fit only for dissolution.

If Rahul Gandhi relinquishes the party's presidency thrust on him by his mother, he will go down in history as a true democrat who placed party's interests (and country's interests because we need an effective opposition) above personal interests. Maybe this is too much to expect from a person brought up on the culture of entitlement. 

Monday, December 11, 2017

Indo-Pakistan dinner

Mrs and Mr Mani Shankar Shankar Aiyar hosted a dinner for their friends including Manmohan Singh, Gen.Deepak Kumar, Hamid Ansari, Khurshid Kasuri and the Pakistan High Commissioner. There is nothing wrong or criminal about this.

It is true that one does not expect a former prime minister or a retired army general or a former vice president to hobnob with diplomats of a country with whom we have strained relations. In particular, Manmohan Singh could have exercised better discretion and stayed away.

This ill-planned dinner meeting has made Narendra Modi see red. He is obviously trying to sway the Gujarat voters away from Congress taking advantage of this opportunity gifted to him by  Mani Shankar Aiyar who is a serial malapropist.

The Congress party queered the pitch further by denying the meeting altogether till confirmations of the meeting came from all directions. Manmohan Singh had no hesitation in confirming the dinner-meet though he lashed out at Modi for the latter's innuendo.Singh's explanation is funny:

“I reject the innuendos and falsehoods as I did not discuss Gujarat elections with anyone else at the dinner hosted by Mani Shankar Aiyar as alleged by Modi,” Singh said. “Nor was the Gujarat issue raised by anyone else present at the dinner. The discussion was confined to India-Pakistan relations.”

When he says "I did not discuss Gujarat elections with anyone else", does he mean  that he discussed with some and not anyone else? Or, did he discuss only with himself?

Friday, December 08, 2017

Neech Aadmi

Mani Shankar had (has) no control over his words. Shashi Tharoor had (has) no control over his actions. Manmohan Singh had complete control over his words and deeds. He said nothing and did nothing. Singh has now become aware that he has the freedom to speak but perhaps with Soniaji's prior permission.

Mani Shankar thought he was doing a great service to his party when he referred to Narendra Modi as "Neech kism ka aadmi". Poor fellow, he does not know the meanings of 'neech'. He is able to speak in Hindi fluently but without understanding what he is saying. Does a politician need any greater qualification than this ? He claims he thinks in English even while speaking in Hindi. Does he want us to believe that he thinks while talking? If this is the oral output after thinking, one wonders how his speeches will be when he does not think which being a politician is his default position.

He has offered to 'pay the price' in case the Congress does badly in Gujarat elections because of his neech statement. How do we isolate the consequences of this statement from the effects of campaigns by Rahulji , Hardik Patel etc.? We are of course foolish in asking this question because he has already said he is thinking in English.

I used to think low of Mani Shankar for his utterances. Now I realise how wrong I was. I must first ask him the meanings of his statements before coming to a conclusion.

Monday, December 04, 2017

Gujarat Elections: Prospects and Consequences

As we near the polling dates in Gujarat, suspense about the likely winner keeps mounting. Hardly a couple of months ago, the BJP winning the elections hands down was considered a cinch. There has since been a dramatic turnaround and it now looks more like an even contest.

What has changed the likely fortunes so drastically is the unexpected rejuvenation of Rahul Gandhi, the soon-to-be President of the Congress party. It remains to be seen whether reanimation of Rahul Gandhi will resuscitate the Congress in Gujarat.

It does not require a fortune-teller to predict that three results are possible. 1) A clear victory for BJP, 2) A narrow victory for either party, and 3) A clear victory for Congress. It is strange but true that straight contests are more unpredictable than multi-cornered contests. In Gujarat, we are witnessing essentially straight contests since parties like the AAP  have only a nominal presence.

Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi have both invested a lot of political capital in this election. If BJP is able to retain or increase its strength in the Assembly, it will embolden Modi and Amit Shah to introduce more economic reforms which could possibly result in more short-term economic pain for the people in India in anticipation of sustained long-term growth.

A clear majority for the Congress will make the party more vigorous nationally. In such an event, BJP will be politically constrained to rework its economic policy, place further economic reforms in the back-burner and present a populist Budget in February. This will impede economic growth.

A narrow victory for either party will be a morale-booster for the Congress party. If BJP fails to obtain a clear victory, the Congress party will attribute the result to Rahul Gandhi's acumen and popularity. If the fortunes of Congress continue to be in the dumps, EVMs and Modi's 'communalism' will get the blame.

Whatever be the electoral outcome, one hopes that both national parties will be mature enough to  recognise that this is only a state election and not a referendum on Modi's leadership or Rahul's political skills. But it is more likely that the result will be proclaimed as total vindication of the victorious party's leadership and complete rejection of the losing party's histrionics. In politics, electoral outcome is the only validating criterion for the parties.

Friday, December 01, 2017

Political gimmicks

Credibility of politicians in India (and in some other countries too) is already low. Politicians are working overtime to shame themselves even more. Elections enable these politicians to suddenly discover their "real identity".

Rahul Gandhi is a Hindu though he is a Catholic. He may be a Hindu in Gujarat, a Jain in Rajasthan, a Muslim in Kashmir and a Christian in Nagaland !

His Shiv bhakti is a proof that he is a Hindu. In fact, he is a 'jenaudhari'. He wears his sacred thread publicly when occasion demands. Publicly in the sense that he wears it over his shirt ! He claims that he, his family and Indira Gandhi are all Shiv bhakts. It is not known what he means by his family apart from his dog, Pidi.. Could it be the entire nation because 1) every politician claims entire nation is his family or 2) if he is a Shiv bhakt, there can be nobody who cannot claim to be one. It is a mystery why he does not wear Rudraksha mala like his grand mother, Indira Gandhi. Possibly, if he wears one, his mother would drive him away from home.

Modi is more sophisticated. When the nearby mosque starts its prayers, he goes silent. Rahul Gandhi has not learnt this trick. His mentors have not trained him adequately.