Friday, October 09, 2009

The China puzzle

Stephen Roach, a well known economist, in his new book "The Next Asia" quotes none other than the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao as saying, "The Chinese economy is becoming increasingly unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated and unsustainable". Very strong words indeed especially from a prime minister. The words were uttered in March 2007 and are now famously called as "four uns". He could as well have added that the Chinese statistics are unreliable, unsound, untrue and unscientific.
Combination of unbalanced economy and unreliable data is a potent mislead that will belie all our predictions and unsettle all our plans. Therefore the hype regarding this century becoming the Chinese century or even the Asian century is far-fetched.
American economy is a learning economy. It is also innovative. The lessons of ongoing economic crisis will enable the American economy to correct its extravagance, pull up its socks and reinvigorate itself. As time passes by, the Chinese threat to US economy will recede further.

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