Even in the best of times, it is tricky to know the state of the economy. (I am not talking about economic prediction which makes astrological forecast more reliable by comparison.) Now many economists have started saying that recession is softening and that it is a matter of time (years?) before we see the light at the end of the tunnel. However, emerging signals are contradicting one another and depending on one's positive or negative outlook, one can cite the convenient signals.
There is now a developing fear that various economic stimuli already implemented may result in inflation. This fear is empirically justified because economic cycles are inexorable. It is too early to arrive at a commonly accepted name for the ongoing recesssion. "The Great Recession" is ofcourse doing the rounds.
Assuming that the recession is after all coming to an end, how come that the crisis is briefer than what was feared? Is it because the central banks of various countries acted in concert whether in terms of interest rate reduction or quantitative easing? Could it be that governments responded much sooner than they did in the wake of the Great Depression? Both could have played a role. It is fair to say that globalisation also made it possible for different economic authorities to plunge into complementary efforts to ease the recession.
It will be interesting to know what we have learnt from this global economic crisis. But one thing is abundantly clear. Among economists, opinions are divided not only regarding predictions but also about the past. Absence of agreement on what led to the crisis and what solved the crisis will fertilise future discussions.