Saturday, May 17, 2014

Election Results: A minimal analysis

 Decimation of the Congress to the extent that they will not even be recognised as the principal opposition party was totally unexpected and unexpectable. Congress prospered whenever the opposition votes got split so long as it retained atleast a critical mass of supporters. In this election, the critical mass atrophied for various reasons. Pervasive and ever-expanding corruption made a critical mass of this critical mass of supporters apply their mind and move away from Congress. They were expected to migrate, if at all, towards a plurality of non-BJP parties. It appears that these migrants felt so much let down that they chose to vote for the principal opposition in order to cause maximum damage to Congress. Congress was perhaps hoping that an ex-Congressman, however dejected, would never ally with BJP.

Dalits are now another disappointment for Congress in all states and for Mayawati's BSP in U P. In U P, they have en masse voted for BJP. Modi used his OBC  card very effectively. The Hindu dalits expressed their anger against both SP of Mulayam Singh for supporting Muslims, and BSP. 

Urban-rural divide has not been relevant as the GOP is decimated everywhere. One wonders whether even Modi could have foreseen this landslide in his favour, his public posturing notwithstanding. Nation's mood is upbeat. But how long?

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