Thursday, October 29, 2015

IOB's asset quality: Moderation or deterioration?

Words used by credit rating agencies communicate a lot. For example, Indian Overseas Bank which continues to be plagued by profitability issues has some of its debt instruments rated by CARE and some by ICRA.

Recently, the bank sent two communications to the stock exchanges. In one communication dated October 20th, mention is made of downgrading of some debt instruments by CARE because of "continuing moderation in Asset quality and financial performance during Q1 FY 16".

Communication of October 28th contains the more blunt words of ICRA which refers to "continuing deterioration in Asset quality".

Obviously 'moderation' and 'deterioration' do not mean the same. Is CARE more issuer-friendly?

Added on Nov 7th:

Response was sought from ICRA and CARE. Their response is given below:

CARE: "Though the statements may be interpreted differently, both refers (SIC) to concerns on asset quality."

ICRA: " IOB's asset quality indicators changed over the last few years as indicated below: 



ParameterFY12FY13FY14FY15Jun-15Sep-15
Gross NPA2.74%4.02%4.98%8.33%9.40%11.00%
While the Sep 2015 results were declared after the latest ICRA rating action, the above table is quite clear that "continued deterioration" is a more appropriate representation while commenting on the asset quality of the bank. "


BEPS gains traction

Globalisation has multiple merits and diverse demerits. Large companies with units in several countries have tended to take advantage of their multiple locations to reduce their tax liabilities by shifting their profit centres cleverly to those jurisdictions where tax rates are low. This has adversely affected many economies.

BEPS (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting) is an infelicitous acronym that refers to the adverse impact of tax avoidance strategies adopted usually by multinational enterprises, on national tax bases. BEPS is achieved very often by adoption of devious, though not unlawful, transfer pricing models. Sequentially, profits get shifted and therefore tax base gets eroded. For instance, in 2013 the US Senate investigated the case of Apple which had a registered, highly profitable unit in Ireland, controlled from America and lawfully avoiding taxes in both countries. Companies like Starbucks, Amazon and Fiat Chrysler have similarly benefitted from benign tax laws in Netherlands and Luxembourg. Thus instances of tax jurisdiction-shopping are legion.

 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) observes that the profit rates reported by MNE (Multinational Enterprises) affiliates located in lower-tax countries are twice as high as their group’s worldwide profit rate on average; the effective tax rates paid by large MNE entities are estimated to be 4 to 8½ percentage points lower than similar enterprises with domestic-only operations.

Such aggressive tax management (which is no doubt in accordance with extant tax laws and treaties) results in annual loss of tax revenue to the extent of US$ 114 bn for developing economies, according to estimates of Oxfam, a leading international aid agency. Developing economies are more dependent on corporate tax than advanced economies. Global loss in tax revenue is estimated at $240 bn a year which is 10% of global corporate income tax receipt. In the US, though the nominal corporate income tax rate is 35%, actual rate paid is around 15% thanks to BEPS.

Different countries have tried to tackle this unintended menace in different ways. For example, Britain recently introduced “Diverted Profits Tax” (DPT) which imposes a levy on profits routed to tax havens through ‘contrived arrangements’.

In early October this year, OECD, at the request of G20 countries (India is a member of G20) released BEPS proposals which aim at curbing these corporate sleights of hand and ensuring that MNEs are taxed where economic activities take place and value-creation is done. A comprehensive, coherent and coordinated reform of international tax rules is attempted. It is claimed that these proposals are a game-changer, being the most drastic modification in multinational taxation framework since the 1920s. OECD’s Secretary-General has euphorically claimed that these proposals expected to be approved by G20 governments at a summit in November will put an end to ‘double non-taxation’. However, it is wise not to go overboard in our enthusiasm since the increasing digitalization of the economy makes identification of location of profits more difficult. It is a sobering thought that business metamorphoses faster than the development of regulator’s skill.

BEPS proposals are likely to impact about 9,000 companies world-wide. 155 Indian companies, apart from subsidiaries of MNEs, will be covered under these guidelines. The Model Tax Convention and the Revised Transfer Pricing Guidelines are likely to be released by OECD in 2017. The Action Plan has identified 15 actions, along three fundamental pillars: introducing coherence in the domestic rules that affect cross-border activities, reinforcing substance requirements in the existing international standards and improving transparency, as well as certainty for businesses that do not take aggressive positions.

One of the main actions relates to the requirement of provision of Country-by-Country details, annually and for each tax jurisdiction in which they do business, by all MNEs with annual consolidated group revenue above Euro 750million (approximately Rs.6,000 crore). These details include the amount of revenue, PBIT, income tax paid and accrued, number of employees, capital allocated, Retained Earnings, tangible assets, each entity within the group and each one’s business activity. The details are to be furnished from the fiscal year beginning on or after January 1, 2016.

Various  measures contemplated in the proposals range from new minimum standards to revision of existing standards, common approaches which will facilitate the convergence of national practices and guidance drawing on best practices.


Critics have already pointed out that BEPS proposals are likely to generate more disputes among countries with each one fighting for a higher share of MNE’s profits in order to boost its tax revenues. Agreement on BEPS proposals is only the first step in the long journey for streamlining international tax administration. Successful implementation may take a long time. Meantime it is proposed that following the G20 and OECD call for even increased inclusiveness, a new framework for monitoring BEPS will be conceived and put in place, with all interested countries participating on an equal footing. Are we on the threshold of a paradigm shift in international tax practices?

Monetary Policy - Sept., 2015


“Money is what money does”. This is one of the most profound, and yet rather enigmatic, statements in Economics.  Raghuram Rajan, the RBI Governor, made a similar observation when, at the end of his presentation of the fourth bi-monthly  monetary policy statement for the year 2015-16, he was asked if he has softened  from a hawk to a dove. To drive home the point that he is neither a hawk nor a dove, he said, “My name is Raghuram Rajan. I do what I do”. (In Monetary Policy parlance, hawks focus exclusively on controlling inflation whereas doves try specially to promote more employment.)

Nevertheless, a shift in the Governor’s approach is perceptible. Ever since he became the central bank Governor, he had been sharply focused on inflation and inflation expectations and often resisting pressure from industrialists and perhaps the government too to reduce the Repo rate. On September 29th, Rajan sprang a surprise by reducing the Repo rate not just by 25 basis points as was hoped for by most, but by 50 basis points. This was a pleasant surprise to borrowers but a crude shock to savers of money because lending and deposit rates of banks are likely to move downwards.

This marked a break from Rajan’s record of consistency though he might say that a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds. Central bank chiefs are known to surprise the markets; they dislike their actions becoming predictable. Has Raghuram Rajan become a victim of this psychological bias?

As usual, the monetary policy statement notes contradictory economic signals. SouthWest monsoon has been deficient. But, the first advance estimates indicate that foodgrain production is expected to be higher than last year.

“Manufacturing sector has exhibited uneven growth in April-July, with industrial activity slowing sequentially in July, although it has been in expansionary mode for the ninth month in succession.” 

“ In the services sector, construction activity is weakening as reflected in low demand for cement and the large inventory of unsold residential houses in some localities. Rising public expenditure on roads, ports and eventually railways could, however, provide some boost to construction going forward. Lead indicators relating to freight and passenger traffic are mixed. In August, the services PMI remained in expansion for the second consecutive month on improving new business, but business expectations remain subdued.”

If you are a bit confused reading this, don’t worry. As Alan Greenspan, a former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System once famously said, “I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant”. But it must be said to the credit of Raghuram Rajan that he is much less obfuscatory in his utterances than many of his peers, present and past, around the world.

RBI’s views on the relative significance of price stability and sustainable growth are expressed as follows: “Price stability is a necessary (if not sufficient) precondition to sustainable growth and financial stability. The relative emphasis assigned to price stability and growth objectives in the conduct of monetary policy varies from time to time depending on the evolving macroeconomic environment. Financial stability is important for smooth transmission of monetary policy.
Choice of words exposes the overriding importance attached to price stability by RBI. It does not categorically say that price stability is not a sufficient precondition to growth. It only emphasizes the indispensability of stable prices as a precondition to growth and is tentative about the insufficiency of this precondition.

Two factors have enabled RBI to take the risk of reducing the Repo rate by a handsome half a percentage point with the confidence that inflation will not surge. One is the persistently negative output gap and the other is the deferral of much-feared increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Negative output gap means that actual output in the economy is less than the potential output (capacity utilization is about 70%) and therefore there is ample scope for supply enhancement even without augmentation of capacity. Since the US interest rates will continue to be near zero levels for some more time, there is no imminence of sharp depreciation in external value of rupee and consequent aggravation in cost of imports.


The monetary policy statement acknowledges that inflation is likely to go up after September in view of reversal of favourable base effects. As always, prudence of RBI’s present dovish stance will be confirmed or falsified only by future events. 

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Corruption at the UN

"Corruption is a universal phenomenon" is a shocking statement attributed to Indira Gandhi. When corruption has spread its tentacles to the United Nations also, how can anyone doubt the veracity of this statement?

John Ashe was the President of the UN General Assembly during 2013-14. He represents Antigua and Barbuda in the UN. He is said to have been bribed by real estate tycoons to the extent of $1.3 mn for his good offices to facilitate some transactions.

Preet Bharara, the Manhattan US Attorney has initiated the case and effected the arrest of John Ashe. Is there any institution free from the taint of corruption?

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Arun Jaitley's intemperate comment

Arun Jaitley who is the Finance Minister and not the Law Minister is pained by the Supreme Court decision on NJAC. He has referred to the basic structure of the Constitution, tyranny of the unelected and credibility of government appointees and in the process he is hoist with his own petard.

1) Basic Structure: Jaitley's argument is that the court is concerned only with one structure namely independence of the judiciary and the court has 'rubbished' five other basic structures namely parliamentary democracy, elected government, council of ministers, elected prime minister and elected leader of opposition.
Here the minister has mischievously interpreted the judgment as an assault on the parliament and the government whereas the judgment is primarily a reiteration of judicial independence. It is unreasonable for the executive to poke its nose into judiciary and claim it as a Constitutional right.
Is the minister arguing that whatever is done by the executive or the legislature, the judiciary should only silently watch? Is not interpretation of law the sole prerogative of the judiciary?

2) Elected and unelected: Judiciary, executive and legislature have their respective domains. Being elected does not bestow any extraordinary status. Unelected does not mean subordinate. The fact that Arun Jaitley lost in the parliamentary election does not demean him anyway. It is not prudent on his part to rake up this needless controversy.

3) Credibility of government appointees: Jaitley argues that government appointees like CAG and Election Commissioners are credible. Has he forgotten the issues raised by him when a particular person was appointed as CVC?

The government has every right to appeal against the judgment. But it has no right to decry it in a controversial manner. If the government wants the Supreme Court to support whatever it does, it means that the government is not in favour of independent judiciary. That indeed is the issue here.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Judicial independence vs judicial integrity

Supreme Court's judgment invalidating the 99th amendment to the Constitution and restoring the Collegium system with an attempt to remove the warts in the Collegium system has naturally attracted plenty of comments.

Ram Jethmalani is happy that the Supreme Court has regained its prestige and primacy. Ministers in the central government have viewed the decision as expressive of tyranny of the unelected over the elected. That the NJAC Bill was passed unanimously by the Parliament is mistakenly interpreted as the unanimous view of the citizens of the country. This only manifests the arrogance that citizens have no right to think differently from their representatives.

Participants in this intense debate are fixated on independence of the judiciary. True, the separation of powers among the executive, legislature and the judiciary is sacrosanct and cannot be meddled with lest the basic structure of the Constitution (apropos the Keshavananda Bharati case) is disturbed. The requirement of judicial independence mandates non-interference by the other two wings in its processes. But it is debatable whether this desideratum empowers the judiciary exclusively to choose its members (judges) and obligates the legislature and the executive to abstain from this selection procedure / process.

Be that as it may, what is more important and unfortunately more missing is the integrity of judges. Indian judiciary is what it is today (Justice Markandey Katju says it is beyond redemption) more because of the integrity factor than the independence factor. It is time that we demand the judges to correct themselves.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Sanjiv Bhatt

Justice Markandey Katju has pilloried the Supreme Court for its pronouncements on unclean hands of Sanjiv Bhatt in approaching the court. He laments that the Court did not give an opportunity to Bhatt to explain his action before condemning him. Katju's anger is palpable. Says he:

". An upright police officer who bravely took on the crooked Establishment and exposed its misdeeds, has been castigated by the Court in sweeping language which seems calculated to please the ruling party.

All these are serious sweeping and intemperate allegations against Bhatt's character, and so it was incumbent on the Supreme Court to have issued a notice to Bhatt asking him why strictures be not passed against him, as has been repeatedly observed by the Supreme Court itself.



Bhatt was being attacked by the entire Establishment, which included not only BJP politicians but even his own fellow police officers who shamelessly denounced him to please their political masters. Where else could he appeal to but politicians of other parties, NGOs, activists, etc ?

Moreover, in Sanjiv Bhatt's case, there was not even a requirement to make such observations of rebuke against Bhatt, and the Supreme Court has repeatedly said that strictures should not be passed against anyone unless that is absolutely essential. . Bhatt had filed his appeal in the Supreme Court alleging he was being targeted by the Gujrat govt.for disclosing certain facts about the post Godhra killings of Muslims. At most the Supreme Court could have rejected his plea, but where was the need for berating him and hauling him over the coals ?"

If Sanjiv Bhatt is aggrieved, he has every right to approach the judiciary  to clear his name. It is not clear how the learned former judge is convinced about uprightness of Bhatt. Katju has also stated that there are allegations of bribery against the CJI, H.L.Dattu. A specialist in quantification, he has also remarked that 50% of judges in higher judiciary and 75% in lower judiciary are corrupt. He has claimed that Indian judiciary is beyond redemption.