Massive mandate for Modi

Modi continues to be a popular leader. His sincerity and commitment are not questioned even by the opposition. At the national level, he towers over all other netas. His eloquence is unmatched. The only doubt prior to elections was 'would all these qualities matter in a state election?'

Ultimately they mattered because other parties committed many mistakes. 

1) Samajwadi Party imploded thanks to the family fight between Mulayam and Akhilesh. Akhilesh is the son of Mulayam's first wife. The second wife might have caused the estrangement between the father and son. Second-tier leaders in SP started taking sides and the party was vertically split.

 2) Akhilesh's association with Congress created further belligerence from the father who was supported by Amar Singh , a Narada-type character who fishes in troubled waters.

 3) Rahul Gandhi completely relied on Prashant Kishor, a strategist who is credited with shaping BJP victory in 2014 and JD victory in Bihar in 2016. This was resented by Congressmen in U P . Contrarily, Capt.Amarinder Singh of Congress shunned Kishor in Punjab.

 4) Mayawati started wooing Muslim votes away from S P and Congress. Muslim votes got split to the advantage of BJP.

 5) Some Muslim women voted for BJP, the only party that openly opposed triple talaq.

 6) Priyanka Gandhi, the look-alike of Indira Gandhi, could not campaign because her son met with an accident and she was taking care of him.

 7) Anti-incumbency also played its part. Akhilesh's government was at best patchy. Goondagiri was not controlled. Father and son split is rumoured to have been an artificial attempt to isolate the Akhilesh faction from thugs but the public saw through the gimmick.

8) BJP promised loan waiver for agriculturists.

So, in retrospect, the massive mandate for BJP is not surprising. 

U P Elections

Trying to predict the results of U P elections is crazy. But it is crazier to pretend that one can avoid the urge to predict. It appears that all three major contestants namely BJP, SP and BSP have chances, at least theoretical, of being the largest single party, if not the party with majority of seats.

BJP's electioneering revolved around Narendra Modi. Ever indefatigable, he spent three days in Varanasi itself. Was he nervous that BJP was trailing? Did he want to ensure a higher proportion of victory for his party? Did he want to protect his territory, Varanasi, even if the party were to lose in other parts of the state? Perhaps only the prime minister knows.

Akhilesh Yadav rebelled against his father and the latter's supporters ahead of the elections. Nobody knows if it was a true rebellion or only a histrionic stunt in an attempt to temporarily distance himself and his group from the criminal cabal that brought disrepute to Samajwadi Party. Given the circumstances, the chief minister seems to have administered the state fairly well.

Mayawati had to face the departure of some second line leaders from her party on the eve of the elections. She has not antagonised any community in the recent past and hopes to benefit from the disgruntled elements in BJP and SP and also from possible strategic shifts from the voter base of BJP and SP.

If BJP forms the ministry, the state can look forward to favourable treatment from the centre. If SP triumphs, it will signal emergence of Akhilesh Yadav as a national substitute for Modi. If Mayawati wins, she can look forward to quietus on hostile actions from CBI and ED.

Let us wait and see.