Manmohan Singh's unrealistic obsession

Most Indians are disappointed with Manmohan Singh's performance as the Prime Minister. He has consistently turned a blind eye to instances of corruption in various ministries. Some see Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde in him. One reason for the prime minister's abysmal performance is his all-consuming urge to normalise relations with Pakistan. There is no doubt that normalised relations with all our neighbours would be great.

However, unrealistic obsession with normalising relations with the unstable neighbour is only a prescription for disappointment and worse. Pakistan is variously controlled and manipulated by religious fundamentalists, the army and the ISI. No one really represents Pakistan with any unambiguous authority. There are reports that ISI keeps printing fake Indian currency notes to destabilise our economy. Ofcourse, we should expect the government of Pakistan to deny this serious allegation outright.

Manmohan Singh must realise that Indo-Pak relationship is not the only issue that warrants his attention.

Jairam Ramesh, a Chindian ?

Jairam Ramesh, Minister of State for Environment and Forests has done the unpardonable a la Shashi Tharoor. He has criticised our Home Ministry while on a visit to China.

He has discovered that there are two dimensions to India's relationship with China. The Copenhagen spirit dimension is what the minister endorses. He is against the "Huawei headache dimension". According to the overly articulate minister, our Home Ministry's suspicion that possible malware / spyware in imported telecom equipment , particularly from China, could severely threaten national security is "needless" and "paranoid". "We are imagining demons where there are none". Even Pandit Nehru and Krishna Menon would not have been so naive !

The minister has committed a double fault. One, what is the expertise at his command to give a clean chit to Huawei ? Secondly, is a foreign territory the right place to castigate another ministry in the Indian cabinet ?

Challenges in 2010

Thomas Friedman, the American columnist says that there are three main challenges facing the world in the year 2010. The typically U S -centric list consists of regulation of banks, China- Google relationship and nuclear ambitions of recalcitrant Iran. The underlying theme in all these issues is ethics.

Banks in the U S and because of them the American financial system got trapped in a crisis on account of absence of ethics among the bankers who did not think twice about misselling their products, the credit rating agencies which readily rated and alchemised the investment options which they themselves scarcely understood, the regulatory agencies which turned a blind eye to the developing miasma, the Fedbank that kept the interest rate at perniciously low levels for too long and the hedonistic American public that was only too eager to grab any loan offer unmindful of repayment requirements.

Google whose much-vaunted motto is "Don't be evil" seems to have realised that Chinese censorship and cyber-espionage borders on evil and therefore not consistent with Google's business philosophy (one cannot so confidently say business practices). Though it remains to be seen who loses more - Google or the Chinese- in this imbroglio, one thing is certain. It is unethical to deny a vast section of humanity the benefits of digital progress by succumbing to the autocratic policy of a paranoid government.

American government considers Iran's nuclear threat as an unethical exercise of an "evil state". But Obama should know better than his predecessor that it is never too late to negotiate any hostile country into a dialogue of reason and fairness. Threats and counter-threats only lead to a more vicious environment.

Though these three are major challenges as of now, power of uncertainty is so colossal that we may be drawn into a more intractable , and as yet little understood, challenge before the year draws to a close.

Cyber-terrorism

There is a lot in common between jihadi terrorism and the Chinese intrusion into Google emails. The source of jihadi terrorism namely Pakistan consistently denies it has any role in terrorist attacks on India and elsewhere. Similarly the Chinese government have nonchalantly told the cyberworld that it has nothing to do with Google China's misery.

Both terrorism and cyber espionage are a frontal attack on humanity. Unless the victims of these two crimes get together, speak with one voice and engage in joint counter-attack, there is no solution in sight.

China's investment bids

It is well known that China has huge investible funds (foreign currency) on account of its humongous trade surplus. Traditionally these funds have been invested in US treasury bonds. In a bid to diversify investments and thereby reduce risk, China has been seeking to invest in foreign companies. China has also been trying to use this opportunity to get a stranglehold on commodities. Timing is perfect. Economic crisis has accentuated the capital needs of the corporate world. Stock market crisis has ensured that equity is going abegging. Why shouldn't China make hay while the sun shines?

However, China is only getting rebuffed in a few places. Sometime back its attempt to buy the American oil company Unocal through the Chinese state-owned oil company CNOOC was frustrated by political interests in the Mecca of Capitalism. China's largest aluminium company, Chinalco (state-owned, needless to say) proposed to buy $19.5 bn stake in Rio Tinto, Australia-based world's second largest mining company valued for its copper and iron-ore mines. Sinophobic Australia has negatived this Chinese bid.

In a way, world has turned a full circle. Xenophobic China has become friendlier but other parts of the world are fearful of China's investments. Prosperity brings its own problems. Prosperous China cannot afford to alienate the world however much rest of the world may try to shun China's overseas investments.
In the late 20th century, capitalism is said to have saved China. Now China is trying to rescue capitalism. Can it succeed?
Many companies in the metal sector all over the world are in the process of hedging their raw material requirements through acquisition of mines or stakes in mining companies. For example, Hindalco is purchasing a coal mine in Queensland, Australia at a cost of $80 mn. Such moves make strategic sense in view of cheap prices of mines now. China by virtue of its large forex resources is aiming at big bets. Resistance to big players is a part of international game. Repeated rebuffs will irritate China. China's response now or later will be unpredictable.

Peace in Sri Lanka

Here is an interesting excerpt from The Economist dt.30th May:
"On May 25th the UN Human Rights Council convened a special session on Sri Lanka following a request submitted by Germany on behalf of 17 mostly European countries. Its members proceeded to vote down a proposed resolution decrying the Sri Lankan government's disregard for civilian life. But another draft resolution tabled by the Sri Lankan government itself, praising its own commitment to human rights, was passed by a vote of 29 to 16. Its motley crew of supporters included China, Cuba, India, Russia, Pakistan and Egypt."
It is good that the violence in Sri Lanka has come to an end. The Sri Lankan government was forced to adopt tough measures to counter the villainy of LTTE. But it is a travesty of truth to say that the government was committed to human rights. Commitment of China, Russia and Pakistan to human rights is well known ! India's support to the resolution is intriguing. India perhaps was trying to prevent further beachheads to China in Sri Lanka. But China is too shrewd a diplomatic player to be secondguessed by bumbling India.