Election Results: A minimal analysis

 Decimation of the Congress to the extent that they will not even be recognised as the principal opposition party was totally unexpected and unexpectable. Congress prospered whenever the opposition votes got split so long as it retained atleast a critical mass of supporters. In this election, the critical mass atrophied for various reasons. Pervasive and ever-expanding corruption made a critical mass of this critical mass of supporters apply their mind and move away from Congress. They were expected to migrate, if at all, towards a plurality of non-BJP parties. It appears that these migrants felt so much let down that they chose to vote for the principal opposition in order to cause maximum damage to Congress. Congress was perhaps hoping that an ex-Congressman, however dejected, would never ally with BJP.

Dalits are now another disappointment for Congress in all states and for Mayawati's BSP in U P. In U P, they have en masse voted for BJP. Modi used his OBC  card very effectively. The Hindu dalits expressed their anger against both SP of Mulayam Singh for supporting Muslims, and BSP. 

Urban-rural divide has not been relevant as the GOP is decimated everywhere. One wonders whether even Modi could have foreseen this landslide in his favour, his public posturing notwithstanding. Nation's mood is upbeat. But how long?

Takeaways from 2014 elections

General elections in India are the largest democratic exercise anywhere in the world. (This is despite what the erudite B.R.Ambedkar said about Indian democracy: "Democracy in India is only a top dressing on an Indian soil, which is essentially undemocratic.") These are more sophisticated than American presidential elections where in the year 2000, hanging / dimpled / pregnant chads created doubts about the legitimacy of Republican victory. Indian general elections use electronic voting machines and therefore delays in counting are rare.

The exercise that just got over have thrown up many lessons.

1) Contrary to general belief, dalits do not necessarily vote for the party that claims to espouse their cause. The Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati did not get even one seat in the elections.

2) Pseudo secularism is passe. Voters are not convinced by the argument that Modi despite ensuring absence of communal riots in Gujarat post 2002 is not secular.

3) Voters are against family-based politics. Fate of Congress and DMK are indicative. Vestiges of influence of the Gandhi family remain in Rae Bareli and Amethi only. They are becoming fragile there also.

4) Assistance to the poor is recognised and rewarded. 'Amma Unavagam' ( inexpensive restaurants promoted by the AIADMK government for the poor) has fetched 37 out of 39 seats for AIADMK.

5) Unbecoming behaviour of even otherwise popular leaders is getting punished. Shashi Tharoor almost lost the election in Thiruvananthapuram this time. He polled 2.97 lac votes versus 2.82 lac votes for BJP's Rajagopal and CPI's 2.49 lac votes (Dr. Bennet Abraham). In 2009, Tharoor had won by a margin of 99,998 votes.

6) Congress is losing its reputation as a national party. It has failed to win even a single seat in 7 states.

7) Corrupt candidates can still win. Yeddyurappa in Shimoga and Ashok Chavan in Nanded are examples.

8) Politics is different from corporate management. Nandan Nilekani and V.Balakrishnan do not have people's support which is a requirement for political success.

9) Success in Delhi does not guarantee victory in other places. Arvind Kejriwal and his party, AAP need to learn this simple truth.

10) Politics is more complicated and demanding than psephology. Else why did Yogendra Yadav lose in Gurgaon?

11) Father's reputation cannot help the daughter for life. Meira Kumar, d / o Jagjivan Ram lost in Sasaram.

12) Politics is just not cricket. Md.Azharuddin and Md.Kaif lost in Tonk and Phulpur respectively. Of course, they chose to contest for a losing party.

13) People's patience for exploitative politics is waning. Rabri Devi lost in Saran. Karti Chidambaram came a poor fourth in Sivaganga. Chidambaram's fiat to banks to keep on opening branches in Sivaganga failed to win popular support.

14) Intellectual arrogance is inconsistent with politics. Mani Shankar Aiyer had the fourth position in his home town, Mayiladuthurai.

15) Arun Jaitley was a noticeable loser in Amritsar. He might have lost for one of two reasons. He is perhaps not fit for street politics. Or was there a conspiracy within BJP against him? He was originally a part of the "Delhi gang". He subsequently moved over to Modi's side. His admonition of senior leaders that they should accept the party's decision on their constituencies soured his relationship with leaders including Advani and Sushma Swaraj.

2014 Elections: A laudable landmark

After failing miserably to predict the results correctly for general elections in 2004 and 2009, the exit polls of 2014 have done creditably in their assessment. If anything, they have underestimated the rout that the Congress party would face. Sonia Gandhi has expressed an inane opinion, "Congress did not get support of the people". If she had expected the people to support Congress, it would have meant that she grossly misunderstood the mood of the people.

Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have won their respective seats. This is in a way strange because the Gandhis are responsible for the Congress debacle nation-wide. The Grand Old Party lost miserably because of pervasive corruption that probably originated and terminated in the Gandhi family and the party's pathological obsession with denigration of Narendra Modi. Modi has exhibited a Vaali-like quality that made him stronger with every attempt of the Congress to malign him. In the Ramayana epic, Vaali was gifted with the boon that he would acquire half the power of any opponent, a boon that made it impossible for anyone to defeat him. Rama had to kill him from behind in order not to activate the latter's boon.

People rejoice in Congress' sorrow because its leaders like Kapil Sibal, Mani Shankar Aiyer and Salman Khurshid personified nothing but arrogance. It is fitting that all these leaders lost. Victory of Shashi Tharoor is a disgrace to Thiruvananthapuram.

The once-redoubtable DMK has bitten dust and drawn a blank. Defeat of A.Raja of telecom infame is surprising because of his personal popularity in Nilgiris. Dayanidhi Maran has lost in Chennai Central. People aware of his nefarious role in looting departmental wealth are bound to rejoice. The ever-smart Karunanidhi has congratulated Modi on his remarkable performance.

One statistic that stands out in this election is that the Congress won fewer seats in the country than the BJP won in Uttar Pradesh alone. BJP needs to be smart enough to understand what corruption and arrogance can do to a party.

Expectations vs Reality

An interesting confrontation is now on between Yashwant Sinha and P.Chidambaram. Being politicians, both are adept in obfuscation. The current rally in the stock market, according to Sinha, is an expectant rally that factors the likelihood of BJP coming to power. Chidambaram argues that the rally has crystallised because of positive steps taken by the government.

It is probably a combination of both. It is quite an achievement on the part of government that no new scam has surfaced in the recent past! On the part of the principal opposition party (how one hopes that it is also a principled opposition party!), though a few senior leaders have become disillusioned, it has attracted quite a few leaders from other parties. However, the quality of such new entrants is highly suspect.

The results of 2014 elections may contain shocks and surprises. Modi has peaked rather too early. BJP may be missing the advantage of slog overs. The Congress may do unexpectedly well, unexpected by itself also. If this happens, it has to thank the quirks of electoral arithmetic in India and not its own performance.

If BJP does well, the credit should go to misgovernance of Congress. If Congress does well, BJP's inability to convert abundant potential into positive results will be blamed. In short, the winner whoever it be,  cannot take credit for its success.

Election Time

As elections 2014 draw closer, passions are boiling over. Opinion polls are predicting that BJP will emerge as the single largest party and NDA as the largest combination of parties. Opinion polls are of course not fool-proof. We are also witnessing a large one way migration of politicians towards BJP. Senior leaders within BJP keep bickering among themselves. Narendra Modi is certainly a polarising figure, in a negative sense if you are against him and in a positive way for his fans and supporters.

Election results are not predictable except in Communist countries. Given India's present economic conditons, it is not realistic to expect a sea-change post the elections. High expectations may lead to deep disappointments.

When all of us are comfortable with our respective ideological blinkers, it is not surprising that every blind person is trying to lead every other blind person. What we need is a combination of robust scepticism and an ability to expect the unexpected. Else, our passions will consume us.

Political naivete or legal chicanery?

Aam Aadmi Party has petitioned to Supreme Court contesting the legality of Presidential notification to keep the Delhi Assembly in suspended animation. While the court was trying to acquaint itself of the niceties involved, the Attoney General Vahanvati and Addl. Solicitor General K.V.Viswanathan representing the central government justified the notification with the outlandish argument that the Congress and the BJP may come together to form the government in Delhi.

What a creative idea! The government is ready to invent any fiction if only to subserve its selfish purpose. The Court must have been amused.

Sonia Gandhi's reaction to election results

Election results are in line with exit polls. These results do not surprise anyone, barring the Congress. Maybe, Congress was also expecting the same while putting on a brave face while commenting on the exit polls.

The Hindu reports,
“In Delhi, a great deal of work was done (by the government). But the results tell us something else. We will introspect and take steps to rectify it,” Ms. Sonia Gandhi said."

Rectify what? Rectify whatever good work the party has done in Delhi? At least now, would the GOP realise that citizens expect only scam-free administration? They are fed up with corruption and malgovernance. The drubbing that Congress has received must be a warning to BJP too. One hopes that the Aam Aadhmi Party will not become too political and undistinguishable from other political parties.