Sensex 25,000?

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala,the irrepressible bull in Mumbai,keeps saying that the Sensex will touch 25,000.Of course,he does n't say when.People generally dismiss him as a pathological optimist.Sensex at 7,000 was unthinkable a few months back.Many erstwhile unthinkables are becoming real these days.Who would have thought,scarcely a month back,that a Chinese company would outbid Chevron for Unocal?Who would have known that Jap funds would flow to India to nudge the Sensex past 7K?Is it unthinkable that a part of Chinese wealth now going to US treasury,may find its way to Mumbai stock market?With Globalisation apace,the locus of the unthinkable keeps shrinking.Chinese funds will soon drive Sensex if only because it is unthinkable now.Market capitalisation of Indian companies,presently around $400 billion,can easily be swayed by funds from our neighbour.But why should the Chinese be interested in Indian stocks?That is a million yuan question,as of now.

More on Data (in)security

There are atleast two reasons why we should not worry too much:1)In a country where an army commander would sell war plans for $500,anything can happen.2)An inexorable law of Globalisation is :"A problem that occurs somewhere in the globe can manifest itself anywhereelse also."It is too early to forget what happened in CardSystemsSolutions where data (encashable data) relating to 40 million credit cards were compromised.The famous courier UPS lost unencrypted data of Citicorp customers.Prior to this,Time Warner lost precious data concerning its ex-employees in a similar fashion.The present scandal will be under discussion till the next one occurs.Another law of Globalisation is :"The time gap between any two successive global scandals is progressively on the decrease."In a different context,it is interesting to compare two parallel events namely S.Korean Posco's $10 billion investment (the largest one-time FDI in India sofar) and CNOOC's $18 billion bid for Unocal.Posco is investing in the Paradip steel project in return for a 30-year right to export alumina-rich iron ore from India.This was well received in India barring some resistance from left fringes.But the mainstream US seems to be paranoid about CNOOC's offer.Tatas who would be adversely affected by the Posco move,maintained a dignified silence.Chevron,onthe other hand,is throwing tantrums.To top it all,Unocal's reserves are mainly in the Asia-Pacific region.The US energy system,surprisingly 50% dependant on coal,benefits less than 1% from Unocal.Srivarahan

Kizhanatham,Nava Thirupathi and "Get Well" Anjaneya

It was very satisfying to perform "Thirumanjanam" to Sree Venugopala on 11th June.Kizhanatham where the temple is located is a one-street village on the banks of Thamraparani river.
On 11th and 12th,we visited the nava thirupathis-Sree Vaikuntam,Natham,Thirupuliangudi,Perungulam,twin thirupathis,Thenthiruperai,Thirukolur and Alwar Thirunagari.The temples are well maintained by TVS Venu Srinivasan.
We also visited an Anjaneya temple near Tirunelveli railway station.An hospital called "Get Well" hospital is close by.It used to be a good hospital till misunderstanding among promoters resulted in its closure.The patients are now getting faster relief from their ailments by praying to nearby Anjaneya.Hence his name:"Get Well Anjaneya".

Data Security and Identity Theft

Identity Theft (IT?) is rare in Europe except in the UK where last year 100,000 people i.e. 0.17% of the population fell victim to account hijacking etc.The comparable figure in the US last year was 10 million ID theft victims i.e.3.39% of the population.

Though many reasons are given for relative insecurity in the US, the following recently reported cases explain why we must not be surprised:

Time Warner and CitiFinancial lost personal data of their employees and customers when computer tapes were lost by their couriers,Iron Mountain and UPS resply.The tapes contained names,social security numbers,payment history etc.TW and CF clarified that the mishaps occured despite enhanced security! (What would happen if security is lowered?) Ofcourse,the missing tapes were not encrypted.They were therefore sitting ducks.Both companies have promised that,in future,data will be sent electronically in encrypted form.

Identity thefts do not just happen;they are facilitated by corporate action!

Is Management obsolete?

Is the concept of Management obsolete?
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Management,both as a discipline and as a part of any organisation (business or otherwise) ,rests on two foundational assumptions.The first assumption is that resources are scarce and therefore they require to be husbanded and judiciously allocated among various claimants (departments or functions) in order to optimise overall returns.The second assumption is that any problem (in management science,any issue that calls for decisions is called a problem) needs to be thought through ,alternative courses of action generated and ultimately an optimal solution that ensures achievement of objectives be arrived at.In other words,managerial wisdom requires that any problem is carefully and deliberately analysed,pros and cons of alternative solutions are weighed and the best solution chosen for implementation.This typically leads to a non-intuitive and time-consuming circular decision-making process.

The first assumption regarding scarcity of resources is further buttressed by Malthusian theory which postulates that increase in population (assumed to be in geometric progression) consistently outstrips the growth in availability of resources.As a consequence,per-capita availability of resources is constantly on a downward spiral which automatically renders the managerial process of 'allocation' more significant with each passing day.Malthus also hypothesised that nature assumes a self-regulatory role whenever the pressure on natural resources reaches a critical inflection point and activates natural disasters like earthquake,cyclone and tsunami to cause a noticeable drop in human population.

Geologists now believe that natural shocks like earthquake are essentially acts of self-renewal which result in restoration and even augmentation of resources.Such cataclysmic events cause new mountains to come up;tsunamis are known to improve land fertility over a period of time and also to mobilise minerals from various areas and shore them up in certain places where they become more cost-effective to mine,on account of higher concentration.Therefore,the assumption that resources per-capita keep declining on a secular basis is misplaced.

The second assumption implies that decisions/judgements made after a detailed analysis are better than snap decisions or intuitive judgements.Malcolm Gladwell,in his recently published book entitled "Blink:The Power of Thinking without thinking" describes what he calls 'The Theory of thin Slices' according to which quick and instantaneous decisions are as good as informed/laboured decisions which consume a lot of time and resources.The DNA of any problem manifests itself in any and every part of the problem.Hence doing a detailed analysis results only in information overload and consequent obfuscation of the real problem.Therefore,the traditional concept of management as an allocator of scarce resources through a comprehensive and time-consuming decision-making process has become obsolete.There is an urgent need to re-conceptualise management.

Time issue dt.7th Feb 2005

The pictures in your special report on the tsunami said it all. What a colossal tragedy! The eastern coastline of India, long admired for its scenic beauty, is now feared for the ocean's potential fury. We are reminded of what Hindus call Pralaya—an overwhelming destruction and natural catastrophe. The only consolation, if you can call it that, is that another tsunami of similar magnitude is unlikely to occur in our lifetime.Kizhanatham R. SrivarahanMadras, India

Letter to Time

Date:
Thu, 6 Jan 2005 04:39:00 -0800 (PST)
From:
"K.R.Srivarahan" Add to Address Book
Subject:
Tsunami
To:
letters@time.com

From:
Kizhanatham Rengasamy Srivarahan,
7/4,Pattammal Street,
Chennai-600028,
India.
Ph:044-24938407


Sir,

The pictures in your special report on tsunami said it all.What a colossal tragedy! The eastern coastline of India ,long admired for scenic beauty,is now feared for its potential fury.We are reminded of what the Hindus call as 'pralaya'.Pralaya is an overwhelming ocaenic deluge that terminates life.The only consolation,if you call it that,is the statistical belief that another tsunami of similar magnitude is unlikely to occur in our lifetime.

K.R.Srivarahan