Malaysia Airlines: ill-fated or negligent?

Two major disasters for the same airline within such a short time cannot but make us sit up and wonder what is happening. Even before any reasonable explanation is available as to what happened to MH 370, tragedy has struck Malaysia Airlines yet again. MH 17 directly flew into a war zone and put to risk the lives of its passengers.

Aviation authorities had permitted commercial flights above 32,000 feet in the area under reference. MH 17 was flying at 33,000 feet. Malaysia Airlines may therefore justifiably claim that it was not blatantly irresponsible. But airlines are supposed to guard against any foreseeable threat whatever be the remoteness of possibility. British Airways and Air France had stopped overflying this risky territory a few months ago. In comparison, Malaysia Airlines was decidedly negligent.

This disaster is much more consequential than what prima facie appears. It is extremely sad that so many lives have been lost. If by chance many Americans had been in the flight, Obama could not have avoided bombing the Ukrainian rebels. Thus, World War III was barely averted.

It is surprising that the aircraft carrying the Indian prime minister was also scheduled to take the same air corridor. How can Air India be so reckless? The unavoidable conclusion is that we are more lucky than intelligently aware.

Takeaways from German victory

The expected has happened. Germany has beaten Argentina (1 - 0). The solitary goal was scored by Mario Gotze. The irony is that he was a substitute for a substitute. It is easy to draw a few lessons from this event.

Systematic team-work prevails over isolated individual excellence. Messi does not make a team. Camaraderie and goal-oriented (a welcome pun as it were) cohesiveness constitute a team. The German captain, Phillip Lahm said as much after the match.

Making a player 'indispensable' is an easy way to defeat. When Neymar became hors de combat, Brazil was spun into chaos and Germany defeated them by a scandalous 7 - 1 score. Similarly, Argentina paid the penalty for exaggerating the importance of Lionel Messi.

Let us not underestimate anyone. Who would have imagined that German victory would come through a deft placement by Mario Gotze who was out of the reckoning for original eleven. Underdogs are not necessarily underperformers.

When the time for a possible penalty shootout was nearing, Argentina players perhaps started easing their focus on extra time and started planning for shootout. They were not 'living in the present' which the Germans did. Never let your guard down. If you lose the present, where is the future?

Though it is easy now to gloat over German excellence, let us not forget that luck also plays a role. Especially when teams are evenly matched, what else is needed apart from luck?

Messi, the messiah?

The World Cup final is keeping the entire sporting and non-sporting world on edge. It is an exciting contest between the German team play and Argentinian individual excellence. Management theorists are likely to draw reasonable and unreasonable conclusions from the result of the crucial match.

Without the aid of either Paul, the octopus or Walter, the orangutan, we are constrained to grope in the dark in the absence of predictive ability. This handicap need not prevent us from making guesses, however wild.

We may take refuge under probability analysis. Based on current form of both teams, Germany is the favourite, perhaps with around 60% chances in its favour. Its defeat of Brazil, the home team, 7 to 1, was phenomenal, notwithstanding the absence of Neymar. (As an aside, one wonders why allegations of match-fixing are not floating around, given the high improbability of the score. Are footballers and soccer aficionados more gentlemanly than cricketers and cricket connoisseurs? Should we start calling football the gentleman's game?)

The entire continent of Europe is rooting for Germany despite innumerable political differences. In sharp contrast, Brazil barring Neymar is vociferously against its legendary rival, Argentina. (Lionel Messi and Neymar are thick friends; both play for Barcelona).

If Germany wins, the proverbial German pride will reach a new 'high' at a time when Joachim 'Low' is the nation's football manager. It looks like a papal contest with the finalists representing the nationality of the two Popes who are now alive.

Constrained Budget

Excessive expectations cannot but lead to disappointment. It is no wonder therefore that popular reaction to the 2014-15 budget presented by Arun Jaitley is rather muted.

The speech was long and dreary. However the message was loud and clear. Though it was his maiden budget, the Finance Minister did not act like a tyro. Arvind Mayaram, the Finance Secretary, has perhaps ensured continuity in government's approach despite change in the ruling party.

Constrained by legacy and handicapped by short time (for preparation), the budget was as good as possible in the circumstances. Nevertheless, there are questions to be raised. For example, should the government allocate Rs.200 crore for putting up Sardar Patel's statue? Hopefully, someone would seek judicial intervention to arrest unconscionable waste of public money. There is no need to compete with Mayawati and splurge on statues.

Jaitley, true to his character, has been magnanimous in not blaming his predecessor for fraudulent deflation of government expenditure in 2013-14 to display 'efficient management' of fiscal situation. It is time government started accounting on accrual basis instead of cash basis.

It is unlikely that Jaitley will deal strictly with owners of black money. The minister should know that a good person is not necessarily a good citizen and much less a good minister.

Emphasis on infrastructure is long-sighted and welcome. Scaling up FDI in insurance and defence sectors is appropriate. Willingness to pare down government ownership in public sector banks to 51% is a smart recognition of reality.

Manmohan Singh has lamented the absence of roadmaps. Undoing the mammoth mess that he bequeathed is not amenable to PERT charts.

Whither BJP ?

It may be too early to raise this question. At the same time, it is better to spot the danger signals at the earliest.

There was a theft in the house of a BJP MP, Giriraj Singh of Bihar. He was earlier a minister in Nitish Kumar's cabinet. The 'Honourable' MP duly reported the theft to the police. The complaint registered with the police mentioned theft of around Rs.50,000 and some jewels.

The police caught the thief and recovered Rs. 1.20 crore apart from jewels from him allegedly stolen from MP. Let us see how the party with a difference deals with this.

Amit Shah has become the president of BJP. Narendra Modi strengthens his hold on the party. This will stifle whatever meaningful dissent is left in the party. Success in the long run depends on respect for dissent. Any attempt to bulldoze one's views on the party will prove adverse in course of time. But then politicians are politicians.

Politicians never cease to entertain us. A former chief minister of Karnataka has demanded a neat sum of Rs.20 crore for a nomination to Legislative Council. The Congress yuvraj, Rahul Gandhi was found sleeping during a discussion in the Lok Sabha. Now the Congress spokespersons have been given the unenviable job of denying the obvious. Of course, they are not new to this comedy.

Gopal Subramanium

The Supreme Court collegium recommended the names of four persons for appointment as judges. The government accepted three names and expressed misgivings about Gopal Subramanium. The government has the right to request the collegium to reconsider.

The moot question however is whether the government's action is sincere or motivated by extraneous considerations. There has also been leakage (mostly deliberate) of adverse information apparently furnished by CBI / IB to government on Gopal Subramanium's handling of 2G cases.

Without credible information, we cannot conclude whether anyone has played dirty in the whole process. Gopal Subramanium could have waited for Supreme Court collegium's response to government's misgivings before giving vent to his feelings very volubly. He has withdrawn his consent to be a judge a little too prematurely. BJP is proving to be no different from Congress.

RBI Governor

Subramanian Swamy has demanded that Raghuram Rajan should be replaced as RBI Governor. His reasoning is a bit strange. We need to prove, he says, that India-educated economists are equally competent. He has suggested the name of Prof.R.Vaidyanathan of IIM, Bangalore. Vaidyanathan's recent book titled 'India Uninc' is well received in the market. He did his doctorate in IIM, Calcutta and has been teaching in IIM, Bangalore for a long time.

There is obviously no doubt about Vaidyanathan's credentials. But is it necessary to rock the RBI boat now? Narendra Modi is too much of a pragmatist to do that now. The IIM professor's views on many economic / banking issues are totally different from Rajan's. This is not strange since no two economists are expected to hold similar views.

Having said this, it is not necessary to trash Swamy's opinion. The government can take advantage of divergent thoughts by making Vaidyanathan a member of RBI board.