Sunday, December 17, 2017

Takeaway from exit polls

The shelf-life of exit polls of Gujarat  elections gets over today. So, it is imperative that we make sense of the exit polls right now. Actual counting of votes scheduled tomorrow may confirm or contradict the exit poll findings to the delight or dismay of people depending on their political proclivities.

Rahul Gandhi spearheaded the Congress campaign. He has since become the President of the party. It is therefore unavoidable that he will gain respect or ridicule depending on the final results. Arrogating credit for victory and abdicating responsibility for defeat is an obsolete and unacceptable strategy.

22 years of BJP rule (misrule according to Rahul Gandhi) alongwith attendant anti-incumbency mood, immense inconvenience caused by demonetisation and trader-unfriendly implementation of GST should have dealt a death-blow to BJP and enabled a cakewalk for Congress. Disenchantment among Patidars , fusion among OBCs and dalits against BJP and poor performance by BJP in the local / panchayat elections preceding the Assembly elections were additional advantages to Congress.

Rahul Gandhi's reaction to credibility of exit polls is not known. But he commented that BJP has lost credibility among Gujarathis. It was also strange to hear him say that foundations of BJP in Gujarat are weak.

The political situation was ripe for Congress riding back to power. If Congress continues to fail at the hustings as told by the exit polls, it can only be interpreted as a consequence of fatally-flawed policy and approach of Rahulji. The 47-year old leader is not a newcomer to politics. He is misplaced as national leader of the main opposition party in the country. His metamorphosis as an energetic and persuasive leader during the Gujarat campaign was perhaps dubious.

This raises the question of tenability of Rahul Gandhi as President of Congress. It is obvious except to the most obsequious that he is in that position purely by accident of birth in a family. Congressmen need to accept the fact that the party is more important than any person. One may argue that only a Nehru-Gandhi can hold the party together in these perilous times. This argument is specious because the alternatives have not been tried for a long time. Continued reliance on the family will only aggravate the party's misery. A political party that totally depends on a family for its survival is fit only for dissolution.

If Rahul Gandhi relinquishes the party's presidency thrust on him by his mother, he will go down in history as a true democrat who placed party's interests (and country's interests because we need an effective opposition) above personal interests. Maybe this is too much to expect from a person brought up on the culture of entitlement. 

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