As we near the polling dates in Gujarat, suspense about the likely winner keeps mounting. Hardly a couple of months ago, the BJP winning the elections hands down was considered a cinch. There has since been a dramatic turnaround and it now looks more like an even contest.
What has changed the likely fortunes so drastically is the unexpected rejuvenation of Rahul Gandhi, the soon-to-be President of the Congress party. It remains to be seen whether reanimation of Rahul Gandhi will resuscitate the Congress in Gujarat.
It does not require a fortune-teller to predict that three results are possible. 1) A clear victory for BJP, 2) A narrow victory for either party, and 3) A clear victory for Congress. It is strange but true that straight contests are more unpredictable than multi-cornered contests. In Gujarat, we are witnessing essentially straight contests since parties like the AAP have only a nominal presence.
Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi have both invested a lot of political capital in this election. If BJP is able to retain or increase its strength in the Assembly, it will embolden Modi and Amit Shah to introduce more economic reforms which could possibly result in more short-term economic pain for the people in India in anticipation of sustained long-term growth.
A clear majority for the Congress will make the party more vigorous nationally. In such an event, BJP will be politically constrained to rework its economic policy, place further economic reforms in the back-burner and present a populist Budget in February. This will impede economic growth.
A narrow victory for either party will be a morale-booster for the Congress party. If BJP fails to obtain a clear victory, the Congress party will attribute the result to Rahul Gandhi's acumen and popularity. If the fortunes of Congress continue to be in the dumps, EVMs and Modi's 'communalism' will get the blame.
Whatever be the electoral outcome, one hopes that both national parties will be mature enough to recognise that this is only a state election and not a referendum on Modi's leadership or Rahul's political skills. But it is more likely that the result will be proclaimed as total vindication of the victorious party's leadership and complete rejection of the losing party's histrionics. In politics, electoral outcome is the only validating criterion for the parties.
What has changed the likely fortunes so drastically is the unexpected rejuvenation of Rahul Gandhi, the soon-to-be President of the Congress party. It remains to be seen whether reanimation of Rahul Gandhi will resuscitate the Congress in Gujarat.
It does not require a fortune-teller to predict that three results are possible. 1) A clear victory for BJP, 2) A narrow victory for either party, and 3) A clear victory for Congress. It is strange but true that straight contests are more unpredictable than multi-cornered contests. In Gujarat, we are witnessing essentially straight contests since parties like the AAP have only a nominal presence.
Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi have both invested a lot of political capital in this election. If BJP is able to retain or increase its strength in the Assembly, it will embolden Modi and Amit Shah to introduce more economic reforms which could possibly result in more short-term economic pain for the people in India in anticipation of sustained long-term growth.
A clear majority for the Congress will make the party more vigorous nationally. In such an event, BJP will be politically constrained to rework its economic policy, place further economic reforms in the back-burner and present a populist Budget in February. This will impede economic growth.
A narrow victory for either party will be a morale-booster for the Congress party. If BJP fails to obtain a clear victory, the Congress party will attribute the result to Rahul Gandhi's acumen and popularity. If the fortunes of Congress continue to be in the dumps, EVMs and Modi's 'communalism' will get the blame.
Whatever be the electoral outcome, one hopes that both national parties will be mature enough to recognise that this is only a state election and not a referendum on Modi's leadership or Rahul's political skills. But it is more likely that the result will be proclaimed as total vindication of the victorious party's leadership and complete rejection of the losing party's histrionics. In politics, electoral outcome is the only validating criterion for the parties.
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