Monday, April 27, 2020

COVID-19 : a terrestrial black hole?

Terrestrial COVID-19 can only be compared to a black hole in space in terms of its mystery. We know they exist, but little else is certain about either. With the recent discoveries made regarding black holes, we may even say that COVID-19 is the more mysterious one.

Where did COVID-19 originate? We need to be thankful that China does not now contest that it originated in China. Initially, the Chinese claimed that it was brought to China by American soldiers.

There is no preventive either as vaccination or as anything else. There is as yet no cure either. Will the virus that causes COVID-19, namely SARS-CoV-2 revisit us seasonally? It is hard to say. We can only say 'it is more likely than unlikely'. However, the devastations caused by the disease are daunting. It is known to have ravaged almost all organs including lungs, kidney and the brain. It has caused strokes among the middle-aged, aggravated DVT (blood clots) among the pregnant and has discoloured the skins of some patients. The discolouration has occurred particularly in China. Like everything else about the opaque nation, we will never know whether the discolouration was caused by the virus or the Chinese treatment.

Certain data presented by The Economist are revealing. Air pollution kills 1.2 million Indians every year. Lockdown enforced in many parts of India has helped to clear air pollution substantially though this was not the objective. So, many lives have been saved which otherwise might have succumbed to air pollution. NASA reports that Indian atmosphere now is the cleanest for the past 20 years. (NASA started scanning our atmosphere only 20 years ago.)

The Economist also reports that rapes in Delhi have reduced by 83% in the aftermath of lockdown. Deaths caused by vehicle accidents in the country are down by 20,000 per month.

Different countries have fared differently in their encounters with the pandemic. Reasons are yet to be established beyond doubt. It is useful to compare Spain and Portugal which are neighbours with a border extending to about 1,200 km. Spain's experience has been a disaster. Portugal is comparatively unscathed. The differences are stark. Till date, Portugal has lost 800 lives to COVID-19 compared to 22,000 in Spain. That is, Portugal's loss of lives is 3.6% of Spain's. Population-wise, Portugal is 21.3% of Spain (10 mn vs 47 mn). Portugal's mortality rate from the disease is 3% against 10% for Spain.

What accounts for so much contrast between two neighbours ? Some epidemiologists argue that BCG vaccination is the differentiator. Portugal implements BCG vax for its children unlike Spain. America does not; India does. Is there some lesson here?


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