Tuesday, March 07, 2017

U P Elections

Trying to predict the results of U P elections is crazy. But it is crazier to pretend that one can avoid the urge to predict. It appears that all three major contestants namely BJP, SP and BSP have chances, at least theoretical, of being the largest single party, if not the party with majority of seats.

BJP's electioneering revolved around Narendra Modi. Ever indefatigable, he spent three days in Varanasi itself. Was he nervous that BJP was trailing? Did he want to ensure a higher proportion of victory for his party? Did he want to protect his territory, Varanasi, even if the party were to lose in other parts of the state? Perhaps only the prime minister knows.

Akhilesh Yadav rebelled against his father and the latter's supporters ahead of the elections. Nobody knows if it was a true rebellion or only a histrionic stunt in an attempt to temporarily distance himself and his group from the criminal cabal that brought disrepute to Samajwadi Party. Given the circumstances, the chief minister seems to have administered the state fairly well.

Mayawati had to face the departure of some second line leaders from her party on the eve of the elections. She has not antagonised any community in the recent past and hopes to benefit from the disgruntled elements in BJP and SP and also from possible strategic shifts from the voter base of BJP and SP.

If BJP forms the ministry, the state can look forward to favourable treatment from the centre. If SP triumphs, it will signal emergence of Akhilesh Yadav as a national substitute for Modi. If Mayawati wins, she can look forward to quietus on hostile actions from CBI and ED.

Let us wait and see.

1 comment:


I like the phrase 'ever indefatigable'.
In 2014, given the fact that it is a high anti-incumbancy election, he held 4-6 rallies a day, daily, for 2-3 months in the peak summer. And that made the difference between 220 seats and 282 seats. This is more than being just ambitious. This is being a missionary (though 'what his mission is?' Is debatable)